The cycles of war
The forerunner of the study of war cycles was Edward R Dewey, with Quincy Wright‘s monumental A Study of War adding impetus to the discipline. The credibility of the study of cycles was frequently questioned,[by whom?] as this type of inquiry attracts persons with marginal credibility and interest in paranormal issues which may lead to highly subjective conclusions. However, with advent of data science particularly computer algorithms minimizing the dampening effect affecting the abstracted oscillations and facilitating the detection of stochastic drifts, the study of cycles is subject to renewed interest.[original research?][not in citation given]
||The neutrality of this section is disputed. (April 2012)|
Quantitative studies of bellicosity of the Western civilization and the Confucian civilization of the East was pioneered by Lewis Fry Richardson.[peacock term] Richardson’s studies led him to the conclusion that “Confucian–Taoist–Buddhist religion of China stands out conspicuously as being either itself a pacifier, or else associated with one” and that “it seems probable that the comparative peacefulness of China prior to 1911 was the result of instruction, and in particular of Confucian instruction.”[this quote needs a citation]
Richardson’s findings were based on data spanning about a century. Study by Krus, Nelsen, & Webb (1998) lengthened his perspective for the wars of the Western civilization by about three centuries (Fig. 1) and for the Eastern Civilization by about 17 centuries (Fig. 2). In Fig. 2, the 220–618 time interval corresponds to the period in Chinese history called the Period of Disunion (also called the Chinese Dark Ages or six dynasties), when Confucius’ teachings were abandoned. Krus et al. (1998) concluded that “In the Empire of China, when the Confucian philosophy was predominant, the peace lasted significantly longer than in the West. When Confucian teachings were abandoned, the frequency of warfare approximated that observed for the Western countries.”[this quote needs a citation]
For another comparative study that specifies a mathematical model of war cycles and tests it cross-culturally and cross-historically see Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Note that this study tries to connect the war cycles with long-term trend dynamics.
- The Better Angels of Our Nature
- Alexander Chizhevsky
- Dampening effect
- List of cycles
- Quantitative history
- Social cycle theory
- Stochastic drift
- Supreme crime
- World systems theory
- See, for example, History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies / Ed. by Peter Turchin et al.. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5-484-01002-0)
- Dewey, E.R. (1951) “The 57-year cycle in international conflict”. Cycles 2, 1, 4–6.
- Dewey, E.R. (1952) “The 142-year cycle in war”. Cycles 3, 6, 201–204.
- Dewey, E.R. (1967) “Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War”. Cycles, January 1967. (Request reprint).
- Ellis, M.H. (1997) Unholy alliance: religion and atrocity in our time. Minneapolis: Fortress Press.
- Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00559-0.
- Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. (2006) Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00560-4.
- Krus, D. J. & Blackman, H. S. (1980) “Time scale factor as related to theories of societal change”. Psychological Reports 46, 95–102. (Request reprint).
- Krus, D.J., & Ko, H.O. (1983) “Algorithm for autocorrelation analysis of secular trends”. Educational and Psychological Measurement 43, 821–828. (Request reprint).
- Turchin, P., et al., eds. (2007) History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS. ISBN 5-484-01002-0.
- McMaster, Jr., R. E. (1978). Cycles of War: The next six years.
- Krus, D.J., Nelsen, E.A. & Webb, J.M. (1998) “Recurrence of war in classical East and West civilizations”. Psychological Reports 83, 139–143 (Request reprint).
- Krus, D. J. & Webb, J. M. (2001) “Für oder gegen ein militarisches Eingreifen: Ist die Einstellung zum Krieg eine Variable der Gesinnung oder des sitationsbedingten Gemütszustands?”Zeitschrift fur Sozialpsychologie und Gruppendynamik in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 26.Jg. Heft 2, 3–8 (Request reprint in English, in German).
- Richardson, L.F. (1960) Statistics of deadly quarrels. Pacific Grove, CA: Boxwood Press.
- Turchin, P. (2006) War and Peace and War: The Life Cycles of Imperial Nations. Pi Press.
- Wright, Q. (1965) A study of war (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.